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Internationale Assoziation für Interkulturellen Dialog und Geostrategische Studien

Publikationen

Movement to a new world order

Autor: Rolf Clauberg
Journal:Вестник Университета Мировых Цивилизаций (Bulletin of the University of World Civilizations), Vol. 14, No. 3, 2023, pp 28-38.
or with this link: at UWZ.
Abstract:This article analyses the changes in the world economy and international relations from after World War II to mid-2023, with the goal of identifying indicators for future changes in the world order. It uses existing analyses about the historical development of the last 500 years to identify the main facts signaling changes in the world order. History shows that such changes of the leading power are usually accompanied by trade wars and also real wars between the old and new powers. One driving force found behind the present actions is the discrepancy between the economic evolution of several members of the BRICS group, especially China, and the present structure of global institutions of power neglecting these changes. We see multiple networks of countries with different coupling strengths working together to achieve their goals - the developing countries for enabling a change in the world order and the developed countries for stopping this. The latest developments point to an increase of activities from both sides.

The new emerging world economic order for the 21st century

Autor: Rolf Clauberg
Conference:Russia and the World: Development of Civilizations. Scientific Heritage and Views of V.V. Zhirinovsky on the emerging world order, Moscow and Online, April 13–14, 2023, pp. 190-202
Abstract:This article provides an analysis of the modern economic world order, considering the emergence of new “centers of power” and networks of collaborating states. The article begins by presenting the historical evolution of regional and global powers, focusing on their colonial past. The emphasis is on the factors that led to their “political power”, as well as “political collapse” as a result of various wars. It then analyzes China's strategic moves that have allowed it to transform itself from an insignificant country into an important economic and political power. In addition, a US response is being considered to stem China's rising power. The article also examines the growing influence of individual countries in the global world, as well as the current global situation associated with a change in the world economic order.

Economic crises in an unsecure globalised world

Autor: Rolf Clauberg
Conference:Transformation of the International Security in the XXI Century: Sanctions,Conflicts and Imperatives of Cooperation, Online, Dec. 1st 2022, pp. 29-39
Abstract:This article will first consider the evolution of international relations from the end of World War II up to today to understand the present global situation. Then it will look into the use of trade sanctions in so-called hybrid or total wars within an economically integrated global world.

A Conceptual Analysis of the Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence for All Parts of the Economy

Autor: Rolf Clauberg
Journal:Вестник Института Мировых Цивилизаций (Bulletin of the Institute of World Civilizations), Vol. 13, No. 3, 2022, pp 77-85.
or with this link: at IWZ.
Abstract:This article is dedicated to one of the most actual topics of our time — the development of artificial intelligence (AI) in all its fields of application. AI will impact all parts of our economy, changing or eliminating existing jobs as well as creating new ones. The article analyses the different opportunities and threats for artificial intelligence systems with a model that extracts the threats and opportunities from the characteristics of the technology and the requirements of potential applications. Main application classes are reactive and creative applications. The reactive class is based on classification plus corresponding actions with subclasses like monitoring, autonomous systems, and expert support systems. The creative class generates new methodologies, technologies, and styles of art. Opportunities, threats, and side effects are analyzed for each application class with examples for each class. We find huge opportunities, but also serious potential threats and side effects. Important opportunities are in medical diagnostics, development of new technologies and materials, and improvement of safety and security in public as well as industrial areas. Most serious threats are AI based terrorist attacks. Serious possible side effects are the disappearance of complete classes of jobs due to highly efficient expert support systems as well as an increasing dependance on AI solutions in all aspects of our society. Of course, the development of artificial intelligence puts humanity before a choice on which our future depends.

Global changes in the world economic system and international relations

Autor: Rolf Clauberg
Conference: Russia and the world: The development of civilizations. Transformations of civilizational values in the modern world - Россия и мир: Развитие цивилизаций. Преобразования цивилизационных ценностей в современном мире, Moscow/Russia, Apr. 21-22, 2021, pp. 416-421
Abstract:This paper analyses the changes in global trading patterns and economic relations from about the year 2000 to the present. Findings are that the evolution of China to a strong international power is based on clear strategic steps in manufacturing, outward foreign direct investment, education, as well as science and technology. Thereby challenging the present global superpower, the USA, in its economic, scientific, and technology positions and international relations. The resulting trade war started by the USA and the related actions against Russia may push China and Russia into a strategic partnership and the world into a bipolar order dominated by China and the USA.

Cyber-physical systems and artificial intelligence: chances and threats to modern economies

Autor: Rolf Clauberg
Journal: Журнал Мировые цивилизации, 5(3-4), 2020 pp. 1-9
Abstract:This article analyzes the potential chances and threats to modern civilizations and economies caused by cyber-physical systems and artificial intelligence. Literature describing the evolution of cyber-physical systems and artificial intelligence is analyzed for discerning the underlying forces driving these evolutions, the potential chances brought by these new technologies as well as the most serious threats stemming from these technologies. Special emphasize is given to the merge of operational technology and information technology and corresponding cyber-physical systems in critical infrastructure, industrial plants, and unmanned aerial vehicles. For cyber-physical systems in critical infrastructure and industrial plants we find the chances driving the evolution mainly in enhancements of productivity and improvements of efficiency and ease of use within their existing markets. For unmanned aerial vehicles the corresponding chances are mainly new applications, in markets accessible before only with high risk for human life and health. For the threats we try to estimate the size of threats from previous events and the potential to realize these threats from what is needed for the realization and what is easily available in terms of hardware, software, and technical knowledge. The threats for both areas are mainly in cyber-terrorism and cyber-warfare.

Challenges of digitalization and artificial intelligence for modern economies, societies and management

Autor: Rolf Clauberg
Journal: RUDN Journal of Economics, 28(3), 2020 pp. 556-567
Abstract:This study aims at identifying the challenges of digitalization and artificial intelligence for modern economies, societies and business administration. The implementation of digitalization schemes as Industry 4.0 are presently official policy of many developed countries. The goal is optimization of production processes and supply chains. Artificial intelligence is also affecting many fields. Both technologies are expected to substantially change working conditions for many people. It is important to identify the kind and impact of these changes and possible means to minimize negative effects. For this purpose, this study uses previous results about the disappearance of manufacturing jobs in the USA and their impact on different groups of society together with technical information about the new technologies to deduce expected changes caused by digitalization and artificial intelligence. Results are that both technologies will destroy large numbers of jobs and complete job classes while at the same time creating new jobs very different from the ones destroyed. Extensive permanent education and reeducation of employees will be necessary to minimize negative effects, probably even changes to a more broad-based education to improve the potential of job changes into completely new fields. In addition, the technical information about digitalization in cyber-physical systems points to dangers that will require solutions on the international level.

International Aspects of Cybersecurity

Autor: Rolf Clauberg
Journal: Россия и Мир, Вестник Дипломатической Академии МИД России, 2019 No 4 (22), pp 24-38
or with this link: at elibrary.ru.
English language article in a mainly Russian language journal, ISSN 2410-2415 - also available through eLIBRARY.RU as article 41384840
Abstract: This article analysis the threats to cybersecurity in the pure information technology range as well as for cyber-physical systems. It is argued that the existence of the international dark-net business makes unambiguous identification of attackers extremely difficult and that this substantially lowers the barrier to attacks on critical infrastructure and industrial facilities. International approaches to counter these dangers show only limited successes and enhanced confidence building activities between countries look necessary to avoid large disasters.

Globalization and Technology Evolution: Impact on Economy and Society of the USA

Autor: Rolf Clauberg
Journal: Россия и Мир, Вестник Дипломатической Академии МИД России, 2019 No 2 (20), pp 26-39
or with this link: at elibrary.ru.
English language article in a mainly Russian language journal, ISSN 2410-2415 - also available through eLIBRARY.RU as article 38303759
Abstract: This article analysis the economic development in the USA to explain the change from strong support of global trade to a protectionist policy. It finds that the overall economic development for the USA was positive for more than the last 20 years, but that the gains of this development were highly concentrated with negative gains for more than 60% of the US population. Causes are the inability of the system to adapt to a changing portfolio of available jobs as well as large automatization in industry.